No clear favorite. JD Vance leads at just 23%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $681.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | JD Vance | 23% | +334% | $15.3M |
| 2 | Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez | 13% | +691% | $13.1M |
| 3 | Marco Rubio | 12% | +710% | $11.7M |
| 4 | Jon Ossoff | 9% | +958% | $5.4M |
| 5 | Gavin Newsom BEST VALUE | 9% | +981% | $17.7M |
| 6 | Kamala Harris | 5% | +2098% | $8.7M |
| 7 | Josh Shapiro | 3% | +3674% | $7.1M |
| 8 | Pete Buttigieg | 2% | +3982% | $7.9M |
| 9 | Tucker Carlson | 2% | +4551% | $14.0M |
| 10 | Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson | 2% | +5614% | $8.2M |
| 11 | Donald Trump | 2% | +5961% | $9.4M |
| 12 | Ron DeSantis | 2% | +6352% | $12.3M |
| 13 | Thomas Massie | 2% | +6352% | $8.2M |
| 14 | Andy Beshear | 1% | +7900% | $19.0M |
| 15 | Ro Khanna | 1% | +9424% | $10.6M |
| 16 | Donald Trump Jr. | 1% | +10426% | $13.6M |
| 17 | Greg Abbott | 1% | +11665% | $35.2M |
| 18 | Wes Moore | 1% | +13233% | $12.1M |
| 19 | Glenn Youngkin | 1% | +15285% | $26.4M |
| 20 | Elon Musk | 1% | +15285% | $25.9M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2028 US Presidential Election is scheduled to take place on November 7, 2028. This market will resolve to the person who wins the 2028 US Presidential Election. Otherwise, this market will resolv...
This prediction market tracks whether Presidential Election Winner 2028 will occur, with $681.8M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — JD Vance leads at only 23% across 20 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $988K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-11-07. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 12:45 UTC, the leading outcome is JD Vance at 23% probability, with $681.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $681.8M, with $988K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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