Market is split — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
High Volume — $733.6M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 49% | +104% | - |
| 2 | J.D. Vance | 31% | +225% | $17.0M |
| 3 | Marco Rubio | 18% | +451% | $11.5M |
| 4 | Ron DeSantis BEST VALUE | 16% | +523% | $16.8M |
| 5 | Tucker Carlson | 4% | +2567% | $14.0M |
| 6 | John McEntee | 4% | +2640% | $1.8M |
| 7 | Thomas Massie | 3% | +2885% | $6.4M |
| 8 | Ted Cruz | 3% | +3409% | $20.0M |
| 9 | Brian Kemp | 3% | +3746% | $18.6M |
| 10 | Glenn Youngkin | 3% | +3822% | $9.2M |
| 11 | Donald Trump Jr. | 2% | +6352% | $9.9M |
| 12 | Nikki Haley | 1% | +11011% | $11.0M |
| 13 | Byron Donalds | 1% | +11665% | $44.9M |
| 14 | Donald Trump | 1% | +12400% | $9.9M |
| 15 | Josh Hawley | 1% | +15285% | $20.7M |
| 16 | Ivanka Trump | 1% | +15285% | $9.0M |
| 17 | Rand Paul | 1% | +15285% | $20.0M |
| 18 | Marjorie Taylor Greene | 1% | +18082% | $7.1M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the named individual wins and accepts the 2028 nomination of the Republican Party for U.S. president. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. The resolution...
This prediction market tracks whether Republican Presidential Nominee 2028 will occur, with $733.6M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Robert F. Kennedy Jr. leading at just 49%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
The market has seen $560K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-11-08. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 14:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Robert F. Kennedy Jr. at 49% probability, with $733.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $733.6M, with $560K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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