The market strongly favors Eduardo Paes at 86%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eduardo Paes | 86% | +16% | $5K |
| 2 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Felipe Curi BEST VALUE | 8% | +1135% | $6K |
| 12 | Anthony Garotinho | 2% | +6352% | $3K |
| 13 | Douglas Ruas | 2% | +6352% | $2K |
| 14 | Wilson Witzel | 1% | +12400% | $3K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Rio de Janeiro gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the firs...
This prediction market tracks whether Rio de Janeiro Governor Election Winner will occur, with $45K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Eduardo Paes is priced at 86%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $28K traded in the last 24 hours alone (63% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-10-05. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 19, 2026 at 05:35 UTC, the leading outcome is Eduardo Paes at 86% probability, with $45K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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