The market strongly favors Yes/No at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Yes/No | 94% | +6% | $29K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the A Just Russia (SR) party list receives a percentage of valid votes greater t...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia Elections: A Just Russia (SR) Clears Duma Threshold? will occur, with $29K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Yes/No is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours alone (79% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 21, 2026 at 11:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Yes/No at 94% probability, with $29K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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