The market strongly favors Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) | 90% | +12% | $172K |
| 2 | Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) BEST VALUE | 7% | +1289% | $109K |
| 3 | New People (NL) | 4% | +2400% | $82K |
| 4 | United Russia (ER) | 1% | +18082% | $70K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the second greatest number of seats in the next Russi...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia Parliamentary Election: 2nd Place will occur, with $553K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $23K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 12, 2026 at 12:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) at 90% probability, with $553K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $553K, with $23K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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