Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) | 62% | +60% | $27K |
| 2 | New People (NL) | 32% | +212% | $21K |
| 3 | Communist Party of the Russian Federation (KPRF) BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $13K |
| 4 | A Just Russia – For Truth (SRZP) | 1% | +7900% | $6K |
| 5 | Yabloko | 1% | +18082% | $13K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Russia in September 2026. This market will resolve according to the political party that wins the third greatest number of seats in the next Russia...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia Parliamentary Election: 3rd Place will occur, with $92K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 62%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 17, 2026 at 19:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Liberal Democratic Party of Russia (LDPR) at 62% probability, with $92K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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