No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 34% | +190% | $69K |
| 2 | October 31 BEST VALUE | 20% | +388% | $70K |
| 3 | June 30 | 3% | +2885% | $159K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at lea...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? will occur, with $357K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 34% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $18K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 34% probability, with $357K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $357K, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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