No clear favorite. December 31 leads at just 14%. Many possible outcomes.
High Volume — $1.8M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 14% | +641% | $825K |
| 2 | October 31 | 6% | +1438% | $661K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine goes into effect by 11:59 PM Eastern European Time (EET) on the specified date and remains continuously in effect for at lea...
This prediction market tracks whether Russia x Ukraine Ceasefire by...? will occur, with $1.8M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31 leads at only 14% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 08, 2026 at 16:25 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 14% probability, with $1.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.8M, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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