The market strongly favors Jorginho Mello at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jorginho Mello | 99% | +1% | $38K |
| 2 | Candidate A BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Candidate B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Candidate C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Candidate D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Candidate E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Candidate F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Candidate G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Candidate H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Candidate I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Candidate J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The Santa Catarina gubernatorial election is scheduled to take place in Brazil on October 4, 2026, with a runoff on October 25, 2026, if no candidate receives a majority of the valid votes in the firs...
This prediction market tracks whether Santa Catarina Governor Election Winner will occur, with $138K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jorginho Mello is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 29, 2026 at 10:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Jorginho Mello at 99% probability, with $138K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $138K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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