November 5 leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | November 5 | 78% | +28% | $28K |
| 2 | November 4 | 70% | +43% | $27K |
| 3 | November 6 | 66% | +50% | $10K |
| 4 | November 3 | 62% | +60% | $14K |
| 5 | November 10 | 57% | +74% | $23 |
| 6 | November 7 | 50% | +100% | $440 |
| 7 | November 9 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | November 11 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | November 13 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | November 15 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | November 16 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | November 17 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | November 19 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | November 21 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | November 22 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | November 8 BEST VALUE | 50% | +102% | - |
| 17 | November 14 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 18 | November 18 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 19 | November 23 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 20 | November 29 | 50% | +102% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Saudi Arabia, the Saudi-led coalition, or Yemen’s internationally recognized government takes a qualifying military action in Yemen on the specified date, Yemen St...
This prediction market tracks whether Saudi coalition strike in Yemen on...? will occur, with $80K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward November 5 at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $80K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 03, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is November 5 at 78% probability, with $80K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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