No clear favorite. U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? leads at just 11%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? | 11% | +809% | $32K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the United States formally commits to giving Ukraine a security guarantee, defined as a publicly announced and mutually agreed deal between the Trump administratio...
This prediction market tracks whether U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? will occur, with $32K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? leads at only 11% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (30% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 03, 2026 at 14:15 UTC, the leading outcome is U.S. agrees to give Ukraine security guarantee by December 31? at 11% probability, with $32K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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