No clear favorite. U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? leads at just 9%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? | 9% | +1011% | $93K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the Trump administration announces that the United States officially recognizes Maria Corina Machado as the leader of Venezuela by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET....
This prediction market tracks whether U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? will occur, with $93K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? leads at only 9% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $21K traded in the last 24 hours alone (22% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 01, 2026 at 05:25 UTC, the leading outcome is U.S. recognizes Machado as leader of Venezuela by December 31? at 9% probability, with $93K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms