The market strongly favors April 30 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $8.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | April 30 | 100% | - | $946K |
| 2 | June 30 | 100% | - | $198K |
| 3 | April 15 | 100% | - | $720K |
| 4 | May 31 | 100% | - | $54K |
| 5 | June 15 | 100% | - | $47K |
| 6 | April 11 | 100% | - | $587K |
| 7 | April 12 | 100% | - | $70K |
| 8 | April 13 | 100% | - | $33K |
| 9 | April 14 | 100% | - | $24K |
| 10 | April 10 BEST VALUE | 17% | +475% | $4.4M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”....
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran diplomatic meeting by...? will occur, with $8.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: April 30 is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $976K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-03-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Apr 12, 2026 at 17:30 UTC, the leading outcome is April 30 at 100% probability, with $8.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $8.0M, with $976K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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