This market will resolve to "Yes" if there is a diplomatic meeting between representatives of the United States and Iran by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. A diplomatic meeting refers to a deliberate meeting between representatives of the listed countries who are acting in an official capacity and are authorized to engage in negotiation or diplomacy regarding US-Iranian relations on behalf of their governments. Meetings conducted indirectly, for example, through designated mediators, facilitators, or interlocutors acting with the knowledge and authorization of the relevant governments, will qualify. Brief greetings, chance encounters, or talks otherwise not deliberately aimed at diplomacy or negotiation will not count. The meeting must be in-person and must be publicly acknowledged by either government or reported by a consensus of credible media. Remote meetings, phone calls, or other meetings where the relevant parties are not present will not count. The resolution sources for this market will be official information from the governments of the United States and Iran, and a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | June 30 | 76% | $22K |
| 2 | April 30 | 40% | $113K |
| 3 | April 10 | 22% | $10K |
| 4 | March 31 | 1% | $690K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is June 30 at 76% probability, with $1.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.1M, with $58K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
Market Insights · Election Odds · Biggest Movers · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms · Alternatives · What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade