December 31 leads at 83%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 83% | +20% | $19K |
| 2 | November 30 | 64% | +57% | $11K |
| 3 | November 22 | 52% | +94% | $7K |
| 4 | November 15 | 42% | +135% | $12K |
| 5 | November 8 BEST VALUE | 24% | +308% | $18K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran is completed, where the first day of that period...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) will occur, with $66K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward December 31 at 83%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $68K traded in the last 24 hours alone (102% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 08, 2026 at 11:45 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 83% probability, with $66K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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