September 30 leads at 69%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | September 30 | 69% | +45% | $2K |
| 2 | September 18 | 64% | +56% | $4K |
| 3 | September 11 | 47% | +113% | $2K |
| 4 | September 4 BEST VALUE | 26% | +277% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if there is a continuous 14-day period during which the United States does not take a qualifying military action against Iran that begins at any time between market c...
This prediction market tracks whether US x Iran Effective Ceasefire begins by...? (2 week pause) will occur, with $12K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward September 30 at 69%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (90% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 02, 2026 at 12:05 UTC, the leading outcome is September 30 at 69% probability, with $12K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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