The market strongly favors ↓ 30% at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↓ 30% | 100% | +0% | $8K |
| 2 | ↓ 25% | 40% | +153% | $679 |
| 3 | ↑ 40% | 16% | +506% | $8K |
| 4 | ↑ 45% BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if JD Vance's hourly odds value in the "2028 Republican Nomination" listing on PredictionMarketOdds.com meets or exceeds the listed threshold (for a "↑" market) or is...
This prediction market tracks whether Vance's Republican nomination odds hit __ by December 31? will occur, with $22K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: ↓ 30% is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $22K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 15:35 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ 30% at 100% probability, with $22K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms