Phil Scott (R) leads at 80%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Phil Scott (R) | 80% | +25% | $46K |
| 2 | Amanda Janoo (D) | 21% | +387% | $43K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 Vermont gubernatorial election. A candidate shall be considered to represent a party in the event that he or she is the nominee of the par...
This prediction market tracks whether Vermont Governor Election Winner will occur, with $89K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Phil Scott (R) at 80%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Recent trading volume of $12K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 25, 2026 at 11:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Phil Scott (R) at 80% probability, with $89K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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