The market strongly favors ↓ $4,700 at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | ↓ $4,700 | 100% | - | $24K |
| 2 | ↓ $4,600 | 100% | - | $210 |
| 3 | ↓ $4,600 | 72% | +38% | $14K |
| 4 | ↑ $4,800 | 57% | +75% | $47K |
| 5 | ↓ $4,550 | 47% | +113% | $28K |
| 6 | ↓ $4,500 | 34% | +194% | $55K |
| 7 | ↓ $4,400 | 19% | +426% | $32K |
| 8 | ↑ $4,900 | 16% | +506% | $42K |
| 9 | ↑ $4,850 | 16% | +506% | $31K |
| 10 | ↑ $5,000 | 12% | +700% | $21K |
| 11 | ↓ $4,300 | 6% | +1438% | $15K |
| 12 | ↑ $5,100 BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $14K |
| 13 | ↓ $4,200 | 4% | +2199% | $14K |
| 14 | ↑ $5,200 | 3% | +3604% | $14K |
| 15 | ↑ $5,300 | 3% | +3822% | $4K |
| 16 | ↑ $5,400 | 2% | +5305% | $11K |
| 17 | ↓ $4,100 | 2% | +6150% | $16K |
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What will Gold (XAUUSD) hit in May 2026?
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:15 UTC, the leading outcome is ↓ $4,700 at 100% probability, with $381K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $381K, with $27K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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