Market is split — Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? at 44%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? | 44% | +127% | $385K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if IMF Portwatch publishes a 7-day moving average of transit calls (“Arrivals of Ships”) for the Strait of Hormuz equal to or above 60 for any date between market cre...
This prediction market tracks whether Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? will occur, with $385K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? leading at just 44%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Recent trading volume of $25K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Apr 10, 2026 at 02:20 UTC, the leading outcome is Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? at 44% probability, with $385K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $385K, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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