Regime leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Regime | 78% | +27% | $529 |
| 2 | Productivity | 78% | +28% | $891 |
| 3 | Framework | 74% | +35% | $458 |
| 4 | Independent / Independence | 74% | +36% | $113 |
| 5 | Task Force 5+ times | 62% | +60% | $361 |
| 6 | Good Morning | 59% | +69% | $381 |
| 7 | Challenge | 57% | +75% | $230 |
| 8 | Bank / Asset 10+ times | 54% | +87% | $88 |
| 9 | CapEx / Capital Expenditure | 50% | +102% | $462 |
| 10 | AI / Artificial Intelligence 3+ times | 48% | +108% | $802 |
| 11 | 2008 / Financial Crisis | 44% | +130% | $853 |
| 12 | Good Day | 34% | +190% | $2K |
| 13 | Bitcoin / Crypto / Cryptocurrency | 29% | +245% | $1K |
| 14 | Prediction / Predictive | 26% | +277% | $886 |
| 15 | Integrity | 25% | +300% | $215 |
| 16 | Stable 5+ times | 18% | +441% | $371 |
| 17 | Gold | 9% | +1011% | $920 |
| 18 | Too Late BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $100 |
| 19 | -No Qualifying Event- | 4% | +2339% | $49 |
| 20 | Trump | 4% | +2567% | $685 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Kevin Warsh is scheduled to deliver a speech at the Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium on August 28, 2026, 10 AM ET. This market will resolve to "Yes" if Warsh says the listed term during his app...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Kevin Warsh say during his speech at Jackson Hole? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Regime at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-28. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 19, 2026 at 08:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Regime at 78% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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