The market strongly favors Good Day at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Good Day | 90% | +10% | $6K |
| 2 | Productivity | 88% | +14% | $168 |
| 3 | AI / Artificial Intelligence | 86% | +16% | $2K |
| 4 | Balance Sheet | 82% | +21% | $73 |
| 5 | Projection | 78% | +27% | $2K |
| 6 | Inflation 20+ times | 75% | +33% | $974 |
| 7 | Pressure | 74% | +35% | $28 |
| 8 | Bet / Betting | 72% | +39% | $76 |
| 9 | Scenario | 48% | +108% | - |
| 10 | Pandemic | 43% | +133% | $322 |
| 11 | Luck / Lucky | 42% | +138% | - |
| 12 | Labor Force | 39% | +156% | - |
| 13 | Anchor / Anchored | 31% | +223% | $657 |
| 14 | Inflation 40+ times | 30% | +233% | $752 |
| 15 | Task Force 10+ times | 30% | +239% | $13 |
| 16 | Echo | 30% | +239% | $390 |
| 17 | Gas / Gasoline / Natural Gas | 26% | +292% | $266 |
| 18 | Dissent | 20% | +413% | $303 |
| 19 | Software | 18% | +456% | $92 |
| 20 | Good Afternoon BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Kevin Warsh is currently scheduled to give an FOMC Introductory Statement and press conference on September 16, 2026, at 2:30 PM ET. This market pertains to his Introductory Statement as well as the f...
This prediction market tracks whether What will Kevin Warsh say during September Press Conference? will occur, with $17K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Good Day is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (65% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 15, 2026 at 06:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Good Day at 90% probability, with $17K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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