UAE leads at 70%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | UAE | 70% | +42% | $20K |
| 2 | No Talks by December 31, 2027 | 9% | +1011% | $11K |
| 3 | Turkey BEST VALUE | 8% | +1076% | $5K |
| 4 | USA | 4% | +2640% | $2K |
| 5 | China | 3% | +2841% | $805 |
| 6 | Switzerland | 3% | +3233% | $962 |
| 7 | India | 2% | +6352% | $878 |
| 8 | Other | 1% | +6797% | $856 |
| 9 | Other - Europe | 1% | +8991% | $943 |
| 10 | Germany | 1% | +9900% | $469 |
| 11 | Saudi Arabia | 1% | +9900% | $1K |
| 12 | Russia | 1% | +13233% | $756 |
| 13 | Other - Middle East/North Africa | 1% | +18082% | $317 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the country in which the next diplomatic meeting between representatives of Russia and Ukraine aimed at discussing a ceasefire, peace agreement, or other substant...
This prediction market tracks whether Where will the next Russia x Ukraine peace talks take place? will occur, with $51K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward UAE at 70%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (24% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2028-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 22, 2026 at 02:05 UTC, the leading outcome is UAE at 70% probability, with $51K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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