The market strongly favors Audias Flores-Silva at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Audias Flores-Silva | 100% | - | $6K |
| 2 | Juan Reyes Mejía González | 72% | +39% | $33K |
| 3 | Iván Archivaldo Guzmán Salazar | 55% | +82% | $6K |
| 4 | Ricardo Ruiz Velasco | 44% | +127% | $61K |
| 5 | Jesús Alfredo Guzmán Salazar | 42% | +141% | $6K |
| 6 | Juan Pablo Ledezma | 40% | +150% | $658 |
| 7 | Hugo Gonzalo Mendoza Gaytan | 35% | +186% | $5K |
| 8 | Juan Carlos Valencia Gonzalez BEST VALUE | 24% | +317% | $59K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the listed Cartel Leader is arrested or detained by law enforcement by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". Temporary hold...
This prediction market tracks whether Which cartel leaders will be arrested in 2026? will occur, with $176K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: Audias Flores-Silva is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $33K traded in the last 24 hours alone (19% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 25, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Audias Flores-Silva at 100% probability, with $176K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $176K, with $33K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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