The market strongly favors Rigetti at 90%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Rigetti | 90% | +11% | $22K |
| 2 | D-Wave | 90% | +12% | $2K |
| 3 | GlobalFoundries | 48% | +110% | $5K |
| 4 | Anduril | 40% | +147% | $40K |
| 5 | Palantir | 26% | +285% | $2K |
| 6 | OpenAI | 24% | +308% | $2K |
| 7 | Anthropic | 24% | +308% | $1K |
| 8 | IonQ | 22% | +365% | $1K |
| 9 | Pfizer | 19% | +426% | $4K |
| 10 | Samsung Electronics | 18% | +471% | $7K |
| 11 | TikTok US / Bytedance | 16% | +506% | $2K |
| 12 | Micron | 16% | +545% | $1K |
| 13 | TSMC | 16% | +545% | $7K |
| 14 | Boeing | 14% | +590% | $7K |
| 15 | Nvidia | 14% | +641% | $12K |
| 16 | Freeport-McMoRan | 10% | +953% | $956 |
| 17 | Eli Lilly | 10% | +953% | $521 |
| 18 | Lockheed Martin | 8% | +1076% | $997 |
| 19 | SpaceX BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the U.S. federal government takes a stake in the listed company by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. Takes a stake refe...
This prediction market tracks whether Which companies will the US take a stake in? will occur, with $117K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Rigetti is priced at 90%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (16% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 17, 2026 at 11:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Rigetti at 90% probability, with $117K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $117K, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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