The market strongly favors United States at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | United States | 100% | - | $76K |
| 2 | United Kingdom | 10% | +953% | $135K |
| 3 | France | 6% | +1438% | $84K |
| 4 | Bahrain BEST VALUE | 6% | +1718% | $16K |
| 5 | Kuwait | 4% | +2122% | $932 |
| 6 | UAE | 4% | +2497% | $3K |
| 7 | Germany | 4% | +2678% | $143K |
| 8 | Saudi Arabia | 4% | +2717% | $20K |
| 9 | Netherlands | 3% | +3822% | $34K |
| 10 | India | 3% | +3822% | $4K |
| 11 | Oman | 2% | +6352% | $4K |
| 12 | Italy | 1% | +6797% | $69K |
| 13 | Japan | 1% | +7043% | $88K |
| 14 | Greece | 1% | +7900% | $17K |
| 15 | Qatar | 1% | +8596% | $4K |
| 16 | Pakistan | 1% | +9424% | $10K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a national government, its military, or a broad consensus of credible reporting confirms that the listed country's warships transited through the Strait of Hormuz...
As of May 14, 2026 at 22:25 UTC, the leading outcome is United States at 100% probability, with $882K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $882K, with $76K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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