Market is split — Pakistan at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Pakistan | 50% | +98% | $2K |
| 2 | Qatar | 39% | +156% | $3K |
| 3 | Oman | 26% | +277% | $3K |
| 4 | Egypt | 14% | +641% | $585 |
| 5 | Jordan | 13% | +669% | $14K |
| 6 | Turkey | 13% | +669% | $461 |
| 7 | Lebanon | 12% | +700% | $314 |
| 8 | Kuwait | 6% | +1438% | $901 |
| 9 | Saudi Arabia BEST VALUE | 6% | +1567% | $2K |
| 10 | Syria | 4% | +2339% | $2K |
| 11 | Israel | 3% | +3025% | $5K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
On June 14, 2026, the US and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement between the two countries, with an announced signing ceremony on June 19. This market will resolve to “Yes” if an authorized...
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will sign the US x Iran deal by June 30? will occur, with $32K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Pakistan leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $32K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 17, 2026 at 13:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Pakistan at 50% probability, with $32K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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