No clear favorite. Canada leads at just 29%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Canada | 29% | +245% | $16K |
| 2 | India | 17% | +488% | $69K |
| 3 | Israel | 16% | +506% | $502 |
| 4 | Taiwan | 16% | +535% | $33K |
| 5 | Indonesia | 14% | +641% | $20K |
| 6 | Australia | 12% | +700% | $6K |
| 7 | Mexico | 12% | +700% | $3K |
| 8 | Argentina | 12% | +733% | $23K |
| 9 | Vietnam | 12% | +733% | $7K |
| 10 | United Kingdom | 12% | +733% | $563 |
| 11 | Pakistan | 11% | +809% | $105K |
| 12 | South Africa | 9% | +1011% | $438 |
| 13 | European Union | 8% | +1076% | $13K |
| 14 | Japan | 8% | +1076% | $17K |
| 15 | Brazil | 8% | +1142% | $5K |
| 16 | South Korea | 7% | +1349% | $59K |
| 17 | Russia BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a free trade agreement with the specified country or entity becomes law in the United States by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve...
This prediction market tracks whether Which countries will Trump make new trade deals with before 2027? will occur, with $379K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Canada leads at only 29% across 17 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $13K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 19, 2026 at 18:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Canada at 29% probability, with $379K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $379K, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms