The market strongly favors Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 89%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) | 89% | +12% | $8K |
| 2 | Green Party (MP) | 84% | +20% | $6K |
| 3 | Centre Party (C) | 60% | +65% | $4K |
| 4 | Left Party (V) | 34% | +199% | $4K |
| 5 | Citizens' Coalition (MED) | 30% | +234% | $234 |
| 6 | Christian Democrats (KD) | 26% | +277% | $6K |
| 7 | Moderate Party (M) | 18% | +471% | $4K |
| 8 | Sweden Democrats (SD) BEST VALUE | 12% | +770% | $10K |
| 9 | Liberals (L) | 12% | +770% | $6K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Sweden on September 13, 2026. This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed political party is included in the first Swedish government formed af...
This prediction market tracks whether Which parties will be in next Swedish Government? will occur, with $47K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) is priced at 89%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $19K traded in the last 24 hours alone (40% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 14, 2026 at 04:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) at 89% probability, with $47K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms