The market strongly favors Alaska at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alaska | 94% | +7% | $10K |
| 2 | Mississippi | 93% | +8% | $2K |
| 3 | Iowa | 74% | +35% | $17K |
| 4 | South Carolina | 70% | +43% | $9K |
| 5 | Louisiana | 69% | +46% | $377 |
| 6 | Ohio (Special) | 64% | +55% | $13K |
| 7 | Florida (Special) | 60% | +67% | $14K |
| 8 | Montana | 56% | +79% | $4K |
| 9 | Maine | 55% | +82% | $7K |
| 10 | Kansas | 54% | +87% | $14K |
| 11 | Michigan | 41% | +144% | $12K |
| 12 | Nebraska | 25% | +300% | $10K |
| 13 | New Mexico | 20% | +399% | $10K |
| 14 | Virginia | 19% | +431% | $3K |
| 15 | Minnesota BEST VALUE | 16% | +506% | $16K |
| 16 | Colorado | 2% | +4662% | $3K |
| 17 | New Hampshire | 2% | +5456% | $8K |
| 18 | Texas | 2% | +5782% | $37K |
| 19 | Georgia | 2% | +6567% | $6K |
| 20 | North Carolina | 1% | +8991% | $11K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this mar...
This prediction market tracks whether Which Senate races will be within 5%? will occur, with $203K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Alaska is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Recent trading volume of $18K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 04, 2026 at 09:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Alaska at 94% probability, with $203K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $203K, with $18K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms