The market strongly favors Ohio (Special) at 88%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ohio (Special) | 88% | +13% | $546 |
| 2 | Michigan | 80% | +26% | $409 |
| 3 | Texas | 73% | +37% | $196 |
| 4 | Iowa | 73% | +37% | $746 |
| 5 | Alaska | 67% | +49% | $354 |
| 6 | Maine | 65% | +54% | $188 |
| 7 | Nebraska | 42% | +135% | $2K |
| 8 | New Hampshire | 42% | +138% | $781 |
| 9 | Georgia | 32% | +212% | $163 |
| 10 | Minnesota | 32% | +212% | $3K |
| 11 | Florida (Special) | 28% | +264% | $977 |
| 12 | North Carolina | 24% | +308% | $2K |
| 13 | Montana | 19% | +426% | - |
| 14 | New Mexico | 12% | +733% | $1K |
| 15 | Virginia BEST VALUE | 6% | +1438% | $857 |
| 16 | Colorado | 4% | +2757% | $2K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
The 2026 midterm elections are scheduled to be held on November 3, 2026. This market will resolve to "Yes" if the specified 2026 Senate race has a margin of victory of 5% or less. Otherwise, this mar...
This prediction market tracks whether Which Senate races will be within 5%? will occur, with $14K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Ohio (Special) is priced at 88%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $14K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-03. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 30, 2026 at 05:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Ohio (Special) at 88% probability, with $14K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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