Market is split — Other at 50%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 2 | Pat McFadden | 15% | +587% | $5K |
| 3 | John Healey | 14% | +590% | $3K |
| 4 | Miatta Fahnbulleh | 9% | +1030% | $3K |
| 5 | Shabana Mahmood | 6% | +1500% | $13K |
| 6 | Ed Miliband BEST VALUE | 5% | +1752% | $542 |
| 7 | Angela Eagle | 4% | +2122% | $4K |
| 8 | Alan Campbell | 4% | +2464% | $265 |
| 9 | Alex Norris | 4% | +2532% | $224 |
| 10 | Wes Streeting | 4% | +2603% | $349 |
| 11 | Anneliese Midgley | 3% | +2930% | $1K |
| 12 | Chris Bryant | 3% | +3179% | $10K |
| 13 | Douglas Alexander | 3% | +3409% | $468 |
| 14 | Yvette Cooper | 3% | +3604% | $167 |
| 15 | Angela Smith | 3% | +3674% | $312 |
| 16 | Louise Haigh | 2% | +4662% | $191 |
| 17 | Lucy Powell | 2% | +4900% | $822 |
| 18 | Bridget Phillipson | 2% | +5028% | $3K |
| 19 | Heidi Alexander | 2% | +5961% | $432 |
| 20 | Lisa Nandy | 2% | +6352% | $445 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first individual, of those named in this list, whose departure from his or her position in the cabinet of Andy Burnham is officially announced by December 31,...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will be the first to leave the Burnham Cabinet? will occur, with $52K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Other leading at just 50%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (32% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 16, 2026 at 13:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Other at 50% probability, with $52K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms