No clear favorite. None before 2027 leads at just 34%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | None before 2027 | 34% | +195% | $68K |
| 2 | Susie Wiles | 21% | +368% | $13K |
| 3 | Pete Hegseth | 10% | +880% | $5K |
| 4 | Mike Waltz BEST VALUE | 6% | +1500% | $1K |
| 5 | Robert F. Kennedy Jr. | 5% | +1983% | $24K |
| 6 | Russell T. Vought | 5% | +2074% | $822 |
| 7 | Lee Zeldin | 4% | +2173% | $1K |
| 8 | Brooke Rollins | 2% | +4248% | $1K |
| 9 | Doug Burgum | 1% | +6797% | $1K |
| 10 | J.D. Vance | 1% | +8233% | $826 |
| 11 | Howard Lutnick | 1% | +11665% | $1K |
| 12 | Linda McMahon | 1% | +12400% | $1K |
| 13 | Doug Collins | 1% | +14186% | $951 |
| 14 | Jamieson Greer | 1% | +14186% | $783 |
| 15 | Scott Bessent | 1% | +15285% | $3K |
| 16 | Marco Rubio | 1% | +16567% | $785 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve based on the next individual announced to leave the Trump Cabinet, or who otherwise ceases to be a member of the administration. If no one leaves by December 31, 2026, 11:59 P...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will be the next to leave the Trump Cabinet? will occur, with $130K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — None before 2027 leads at only 34% across 16 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Recent trading volume of $15K in 24 hours shows healthy market activity. Active markets tend to produce more accurate probability estimates, as continuous trading ensures prices quickly incorporate new information.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 16, 2026 at 21:15 UTC, the leading outcome is None before 2027 at 34% probability, with $130K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $130K, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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