Market is split — Abbas Araghchi at 49%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Abbas Araghchi | 49% | +104% | $2K |
| 2 | Shehbaz Sharif | 48% | +108% | $668 |
| 3 | Donald Trump | 46% | +117% | $1K |
| 4 | Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 42% | +141% | $94 |
| 5 | JD Vance | 39% | +156% | $1K |
| 6 | Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 34% | +190% | $506 |
| 7 | King Abdullah II | 15% | +567% | $278 |
| 8 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 14% | +641% | $663 |
| 9 | Recep Tayyip Erdogan | 12% | +700% | $129 |
| 10 | Marco Rubio | 12% | +733% | $1K |
| 11 | Mohammed bin Salman | 12% | +770% | $95 |
| 12 | Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 12% | +770% | $184 |
| 13 | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 12% | +770% | $248 |
| 14 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 10% | +900% | $945 |
| 15 | Benjamin Netanyahu BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $500 |
| 16 | Steve Witkoff | 8% | +1233% | $929 |
| 17 | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 4% | +2400% | $305 |
| 18 | Pete Hegseth | 4% | +2717% | $222 |
| 19 | Ali Larijani | 2% | +6352% | $608 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwis...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? will occur, with $11K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market is closely contested, with Abbas Araghchi leading at just 49%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $11K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 13, 2026 at 00:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Abbas Araghchi at 49% probability, with $11K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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