The market strongly favors Donald Trump at 100%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
High Volume — $2.0M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donald Trump | 100% | - | $130K |
| 2 | JD Vance | 100% | - | $102K |
| 3 | Masoud Pezeshkian | 100% | - | $81K |
| 4 | Shehbaz Sharif | 100% | - | $115K |
| 5 | Abdel Fattah el-Sisi | 1% | +8233% | $12K |
| 6 | Mojtaba Khamenei | 1% | +15285% | $115K |
| 7 | Hamad bin Isa Al Khalifa | 1% | +15285% | $28K |
| 8 | Steve Witkoff | 1% | +16567% | $195K |
| 9 | Abbas Araghchi | 1% | +16567% | $164K |
| 10 | Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf | 1% | +16567% | $213K |
| 11 | Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan | 1% | +18082% | $36K |
| 12 | Sheikh Tamim bin Hamad Al Thani | 1% | +18082% | $127K |
| 13 | Mishal Al-Ahmad Al-Jaber Al-Sabah | 1% | +18082% | $143K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if the listed individual signs a written agreement to which both the United States and the Islamic Republic of Iran are parties by July 31, 2026 11:59 PM ET. Otherwis...
This prediction market tracks whether Who will sign U.S. x Iran deal? will occur, with $2.0M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Donald Trump is priced at 100%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 29, 2026 at 04:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Donald Trump at 100% probability, with $2.0M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $2.0M, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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