Market is split — August 31 at 52%. High uncertainty = high risk/reward opportunity.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 31 | 52% | +90% | $5K |
| 2 | July 31 | 30% | +233% | $2K |
| 3 | July 24 BEST VALUE | 12% | +700% | $10K |
| 4 | July 21 | 4% | +2122% | $15K |
| 5 | July 19 | 2% | +4778% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if the United States government, or an authorized representative of the United States government, publicly and officially announces the end, termination, cessation, o...
This prediction market tracks whether US announces halt in Iran offensive operations by...? will occur, with $37K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market is closely contested, with August 31 leading at just 52%. This near-even split signals high uncertainty among traders, creating potential value opportunities for those with strong conviction based on their own analysis of the underlying factors.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $37K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 18, 2026 at 18:45 UTC, the leading outcome is August 31 at 52% probability, with $37K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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