No clear favorite. December 31, 2026 leads at just 7%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 7% | +1329% | $1K |
| 2 | September 30, 2026 | 6% | +1539% | $26 |
| 3 | June 30, 2027 BEST VALUE | 5% | +1900% | $9K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Clarence Thomas announces that he will retire from his position as a Justice of the Supreme Court of the United States by the specified date at 11:59 PM ET. Otherw...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Clarence Thomas announce his retirement by...? will occur, with $10K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31, 2026 leads at only 7% across 3 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $10K traded in the last 24 hours alone (92% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-07-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 31, 2026 at 23:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 7% probability, with $10K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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