August 3 leads at 66%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | August 3 | 66% | +53% | $1K |
| 2 | August 2 | 61% | +64% | $791 |
| 3 | August 4 | 60% | +65% | $662 |
| 4 | August 7 | 58% | +71% | $317 |
| 5 | August 10 | 58% | +71% | $227 |
| 6 | August 13 | 55% | +82% | $302 |
| 7 | August 12 | 55% | +83% | $106 |
| 8 | August 16 | 50% | +98% | $191 |
| 9 | August 5 | 41% | +144% | $305 |
| 10 | August 14 | 38% | +160% | $208 |
| 11 | August 6 | 34% | +190% | $233 |
| 12 | August 8 | 32% | +217% | $203 |
| 13 | August 15 | 28% | +264% | $139 |
| 14 | August 17 | 27% | +270% | $100 |
| 15 | August 29 | 26% | +285% | $468 |
| 16 | August 21 | 25% | +300% | $190 |
| 17 | August 9 | 24% | +308% | $988 |
| 18 | August 19 | 24% | +317% | $40 |
| 19 | August 18 BEST VALUE | 24% | +326% | $60 |
| 20 | August 31 | 24% | +326% | $376 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets an Arab country through a qualifying military action on the listed date, Arabia Standard Time (AST). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” Qua...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Iran target a Arab country on...? will occur, with $15K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward August 3 at 66%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 01, 2026 at 10:15 UTC, the leading outcome is August 3 at 66% probability, with $15K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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