December 31 leads at 78%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 78% | +29% | $17K |
| 2 | November 30 | 72% | +39% | $72K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Iran targets Oman through a qualifying military action between market creation and the listed date, Gulf Standard Time (GST). Otherwise, this market will resolve...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Iran target Oman by...? will occur, with $136K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward December 31 at 78%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours alone (29% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2027-01-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 78% probability, with $136K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $136K, with $40K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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