December 31 leads at 71%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31 | 71% | +41% | $8K |
| 2 | June 30 | 7% | +1329% | $38K |
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This market will resolve to “Yes” if, according to the ISW map, Russia captures the intersection at 48.494433° N, 37.377320° E in Sofiivka, Donetsk Oblast, by February 28, 2026, at 11:59 PM ET. The i...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia capture Sofiivka by...? will occur, with $164K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward December 31 at 71%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours alone (15% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-05-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 23, 2026 at 04:55 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31 at 71% probability, with $164K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $164K, with $25K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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