The market strongly favors October 1 at 99%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 1 | 99% | +1% | $530 |
| 2 | October 3 | 94% | +7% | $206 |
| 3 | October 5 | 80% | +24% | $8 |
| 4 | October 2 | 80% | +25% | $83 |
| 5 | October 6 | 76% | +32% | $10 |
| 6 | October 7 | 76% | +32% | - |
| 7 | October 8 | 76% | +32% | - |
| 8 | October 9 | 76% | +32% | - |
| 9 | October 11 | 76% | +32% | - |
| 10 | October 10 | 75% | +33% | - |
| 11 | October 12 | 69% | +45% | $63K |
| 12 | October 13 | 56% | +79% | $20 |
| 13 | October 18 | 56% | +80% | $20 |
| 14 | October 20 | 56% | +80% | $20 |
| 15 | October 21 | 55% | +83% | $20 |
| 16 | October 14 | 53% | +89% | $20 |
| 17 | October 17 | 52% | +90% | $20 |
| 18 | October 31 | 51% | +96% | $20 |
| 19 | October 15 BEST VALUE | 50% | +98% | $20 |
| 20 | October 23 | 50% | +98% | $20 |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Russia targets Kyiv through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Kyiv time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying military acti...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Russia target Kyiv on...? will occur, with $121K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: October 1 is priced at 99%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $121K traded in the last 24 hours alone (100% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 01, 2026 at 14:15 UTC, the leading outcome is October 1 at 99% probability, with $121K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $121K, with $121K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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