Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? leads at 62%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? | 62% | +63% | $13K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market resolves "Yes" if the center of Super Typhoon Dolphin's circulation physically crosses the coastline of China on or before August 15, 2026. Resolution is determined by the Japan Meteorolog...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? will occur, with $13K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
Traders lean toward Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? at 62%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $13K traded in the last 24 hours alone (99% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-08-16. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 01, 2026 at 06:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Will Super Typhoon Dolphin hit China? at 62% probability, with $13K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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