No clear favorite. Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? leads at just 5%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | 5% | +1900% | $516K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if President of the United States Donald Trump announces he has resigned or will resign the presidency by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? will occur, with $516K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? leads at only 5% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $15K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 18, 2026 at 15:55 UTC, the leading outcome is Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? at 5% probability, with $516K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $516K, with $15K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms