No clear favorite. December 31, 2026 leads at just 14%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | December 31, 2026 | 14% | +590% | $666K |
| 2 | August 31, 2026 | 2% | +5961% | $36K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if a deal in which Ukraine agrees to cede any territory under its control at the time of the agreement is reached between the Russian Federation and Ukraine by Decemb...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia by...? will occur, with $702K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — December 31, 2026 leads at only 14% across 2 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
The market has seen $12K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jul 21, 2026 at 08:05 UTC, the leading outcome is December 31, 2026 at 14% probability, with $702K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $702K, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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