The market strongly favors October 5 at 94%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | October 5 | 94% | +7% | $587 |
| 2 | October 4 | 93% | +7% | $4K |
| 3 | October 8 | 51% | +96% | - |
| 4 | October 13 | 50% | +98% | $14K |
| 5 | October 16 | 50% | +98% | - |
| 6 | October 7 | 50% | +100% | $14K |
| 7 | October 15 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | October 17 | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | October 18 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 10 | October 22 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 11 | October 23 | 50% | +102% | - |
| 12 | October 19 | 49% | +104% | - |
| 13 | October 25 | 49% | +104% | - |
| 14 | October 6 | 48% | +106% | $16K |
| 15 | October 20 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 16 | October 21 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 17 | October 24 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 18 | October 27 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 19 | October 29 | 48% | +106% | - |
| 20 | October 30 BEST VALUE | 48% | +108% | - |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Ukraine targets Moscow through a qualifying military action on the specified date, Moscow time. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." A qualifying military...
This prediction market tracks whether Will Ukraine target Moscow on...? will occur, with $94K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by diplomatic signals, military intelligence, and geopolitical risk assessments.
The market shows strong consensus: October 5 is priced at 94%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $92K traded in the last 24 hours alone (97% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-01. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 05, 2026 at 14:05 UTC, the leading outcome is October 5 at 94% probability, with $94K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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