Mary Peltola leads at 72%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $1.1M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Mary Peltola | 72% | +40% | $684K |
| 2 | Sen. Dan Sullivan | 28% | +264% | $333K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the winner of the 2026 midterm Alaska U.S. Senate election, inclusive of any run-offs, currently scheduled for November 3, 2026. If the results of the election a...
This prediction market tracks whether Alaska Senate Election Winner will occur, with $1.1M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Mary Peltola at 72%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $26K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Oct 03, 2026 at 12:05 UTC, the leading outcome is Mary Peltola at 72% probability, with $1.1M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.1M, with $26K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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