The market strongly favors AfD at 93%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AfD | 93% | +8% | $43K |
| 2 | Party A | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Party B | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Party C | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Party D | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Party E | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Party F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Party G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Party H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Party I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Party J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Party K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Party L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Party M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Party N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Party O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Grüne BEST VALUE | 8% | +1233% | $23K |
| 19 | CDU | 1% | +8596% | $17K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetehaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve to the political party that wins the third-greates...
This prediction market tracks whether Berlin State Election: 3rd Place will occur, with $104K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: AfD is priced at 93%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $55K traded in the last 24 hours alone (53% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 20, 2026 at 19:35 UTC, the leading outcome is AfD at 93% probability, with $104K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $104K, with $55K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms