Nicolás Maduro leads at 82%. Moderate consensus — room for value on contrarian bets.
High Volume — $95.4M traded| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Nicolás Maduro | 82% | +22% | $2.7M |
| 2 | Delcy Rodríguez BEST VALUE | 10% | +953% | $1.8M |
| 3 | María Corina Machado | 2% | +4551% | $1.4M |
| 4 | No Head of State | 1% | +13233% | $1.5M |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers...
This prediction market tracks whether Venezuela leader end of 2026? will occur, with $95.4M in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
Traders lean toward Nicolás Maduro at 82%, suggesting a probable but not certain outcome. This moderate confidence level often reflects genuine uncertainty — markets at this range tend to see the most price movement as new information emerges.
The market has seen $20K in 24-hour volume, suggesting a period of relative calm. Lower activity periods can present value opportunities for traders who spot mispriced odds before the broader market reacts.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-12-31. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Aug 13, 2026 at 04:25 UTC, the leading outcome is Nicolás Maduro at 82% probability, with $95.4M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $95.4M, with $20K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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