The market strongly favors 14-17% at 98%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 14-17% BEST VALUE | 98% | +2% | $28K |
| 2 | <14% | 1% | +6797% | $30K |
| 3 | 17-20% | 1% | +15285% | $14K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
Parliamentary elections to elect the Abgeordnetenhaus of Berlin are scheduled to take place in Berlin on September 20, 2026. This market will resolve according to the percentage of valid second votes...
This prediction market tracks whether Berlin State Election: Grüne Vote Share? will occur, with $75K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: 14-17% is priced at 98%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $17K traded in the last 24 hours alone (22% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-09-20. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Sep 21, 2026 at 06:35 UTC, the leading outcome is 14-17% at 98% probability, with $75K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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