Colombia's presidential elections are scheduled for May 31, 2026, and a second round (if required) on June 21, 2026, in case no candidate secures more than 50% of the valid votes in the first round. This market will resolve according to the candidate who receives the greatest number of valid votes in the first round of voting. If the results of the first round of the Colombian presidential election are not known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Other". This market will resolve based on the election results, as indicated by a consensus of credible reporting. If there is ambiguity, this market will resolve based solely on the official results as reported by Colombia's National Civil Registry (Registraduría Nacional del Estado Civil) (https://registraduria.gov.co).
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iván Cepeda Castro | 74% | $55K |
| 2 | Paloma Valencia | 16% | $209K |
| 3 | Abelardo de la Espriella | 5% | $468K |
| 4 | Juan Carlos Pinzón | 1% | $39K |
| 5 | Juan Manuel Galán | 1% | $69K |
| 6 | Vicky Dávila | 1% | $242K |
| 7 | Luis Gilberto Murillo | 1% | $95K |
| 8 | David Luna Sánchez | 1% | $151K |
| 9 | Sergio Fajardo | 1% | $59K |
| 10 | Gustavo Bolívar | 1% | $76K |
| 11 | Juan Daniel Oviedo | 1% | $36K |
| 12 | Roy Barreras | 1% | $76K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 22:00 UTC, the leading outcome is Iván Cepeda Castro at 74% probability, with $1.8M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.8M, with $55K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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