The market strongly favors Jim Jordan at 97%. High confidence — but lower potential returns.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jim Jordan | 97% | +3% | $7K |
| 2 | Person E BEST VALUE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 3 | Person F | 50% | +100% | - |
| 4 | Person G | 50% | +100% | - |
| 5 | Person H | 50% | +100% | - |
| 6 | Person I | 50% | +100% | - |
| 7 | Person J | 50% | +100% | - |
| 8 | Person K | 50% | +100% | - |
| 9 | Person L | 50% | +100% | - |
| 10 | Person M | 50% | +100% | - |
| 11 | Person N | 50% | +100% | - |
| 12 | Person O | 50% | +100% | - |
| 13 | Person AA | 50% | +100% | - |
| 14 | Person AB | 50% | +100% | - |
| 15 | Person AC | 50% | +100% | - |
| 16 | Person AD | 50% | +100% | - |
| 17 | Person AE | 50% | +100% | - |
| 18 | Person AF | 50% | +100% | - |
| 19 | Other | 50% | +100% | - |
| 20 | Steve Scalise | 3% | +3348% | $4K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve according to the first individual selected to be Minority Leader of the United States House of Representatives for the 120th United States Congress, which is scheduled to conv...
This prediction market tracks whether House Minority Leader of the next Congress? will occur, with $19K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
The market shows strong consensus: Jim Jordan is priced at 97%, indicating traders overwhelmingly expect this outcome. At this probability level, the potential return on a correct bet is relatively low, but contrarian positions carry significant upside if the consensus proves wrong.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $12K traded in the last 24 hours alone (61% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-11-04. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Nov 11, 2026 at 15:45 UTC, the leading outcome is Jim Jordan at 97% probability, with $19K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
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