This market will resolve according to the total number of different countries' soil that Israel initiates a drone, missile, or air strike between January 1, 2026, 12:00 AM ET and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Strikes on embassies or consulates will count towards the country the embassy or consulate is located in, not towards the country they represent. Strikes within the territory controlled by Israel as of December 31, 2025, 11:59 PM ET, as well as strikes within the West Bank or the Gaza Strip, will not be counted towards this market's resolution. For the purposes of this market, a qualifying "strike" is defined as the use of aerial bombs, drones, or missiles (including cruise or ballistic missiles) launched by Israeli military forces that impact another country's ground territory that is officially acknowledged by the Israeli government or a consensus of credible reporting. Missiles or drones that are intercepted and surface-to-air missile strikes will not count towards the resolution of this market, regardless of whether they land on another country's territory or cause damage. Actions such as artillery fire, small arms fire, FPV or ATGM strikes directly, ground incursions, naval shelling, cyberattacks, or other operations conducted by Israeli ground operatives will not qualify. The resolution source will be a consensus of credible reporting.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 5 | 29% | $432K |
| 2 | 4 | 25% | $1.1M |
| 3 | 6 | 12% | $625K |
| 4 | 7 | 9% | $584K |
| 5 | 3 | 8% | $1.2M |
| 6 | 10 | 3% | $371K |
| 7 | 8 | 2% | $499K |
| 8 | 9 | 1% | $168K |
| 9 | 11 | 1% | $89K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
As of Mar 30, 2026 at 20:16 UTC, the leading outcome is 5 at 29% probability, with $5.6M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $5.6M, with $658K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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