Parliamentary elections are scheduled to be held in Hungary on April 12, 2026. Hungary uses a mixed electoral system in which most voters cast two votes: one for a candidate in a single-member constituency and one for a national party list. This market will resolve according to the margin of victory between the top two parties/coalitions in terms of national party list votes in this election. For the purposes of this market, the “margin of victory” is defined as the absolute difference between the percentages of valid national list votes received by the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the most national list votes and the party/coalition whose national candidate list wins the second-most national list votes. Percentages of the valid votes received by each party/coalition will be determined by dividing the total number of valid national list votes each of the top two parties/coalitions receives by the sum of all valid national party list votes cast in the election. This market will resolve solely based on national party list votes cast in this election. Votes cast for single-member constituencies will not be considered. If two or more parties/coalitions tie for the most valid national party list votes in this election, this market will resolve to the lowest margin bracket for the party/coalition whose listed name comes first in alphabetical order. If any unlisted party wins the most national list votes in this election, or the results of this election are not definitively known by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to “Other”. This market will resolve based on the official election results reported by the Hungarian government, specifically the Hungarian Election Authority (Nemzeti Választási Iroda) (valasztas.hu). However, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may also suffice. Note: If the Fidesz-KDNP does not contest this election with a joint national party list, Fidesz-KDNP margin of victory options will represent the national party list officially registered by Fidesz.
| # | Outcome | Probability | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Tisza 9%+ | 40% | $76K |
| 2 | Tisza 6-9% | 18% | $17K |
| 3 | Tisza 3-6% | 14% | $40K |
| 4 | Fidesz-KDNP 0-3% | 8% | $51K |
| 5 | Fidesz-KDNP 9%+ | 8% | $491K |
| 6 | Tisza 0-3% | 6% | $24K |
| 7 | Fidesz-KDNP 3-6% | 6% | $48K |
| 8 | Fidesz-KDNP 6-9% | 5% | $438K |
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As of Mar 30, 2026 at 21:50 UTC, the leading outcome is Tisza 9%+ at 40% probability, with $1.2M in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $1.2M, with $30K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
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