No clear favorite. Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? leads at just 12%. Many possible outcomes.
| # | Outcome | Probability | If Right | Volume |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? | 12% | +700% | $109K |
Real-money prediction market · Trade with confidence
This market will resolve to "Yes" if Iran publicly agrees to allow unrestricted commercial navigation of the Strait of Hormuz by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”...
This prediction market tracks whether Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? will occur, with $109K in total trading volume reflecting significant trader interest. Prediction markets aggregate the collective intelligence of participants who stake real money on outcomes, making them one of the most reliable forecasting tools available for events driven by polling data, political developments, and historical voting patterns.
No clear favorite has emerged — Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? leads at only 12% across 1 possible outcomes. Markets with this level of uncertainty typically offer the highest potential returns but also carry the greatest risk.
Trading activity is exceptionally high, with $31K traded in the last 24 hours alone (28% of total volume). This surge often indicates breaking news, a key deadline approaching, or a significant shift in market sentiment.
This market is scheduled to resolve by 2026-06-30. As the resolution date approaches, expect increased trading activity and tighter probability estimates. Historical data shows that prediction market accuracy improves significantly in the final days before resolution.
As of Jun 10, 2026 at 08:15 UTC, the leading outcome is Iran agrees to unrestricted shipping through Hormuz by June 30? at 12% probability, with $109K in total trading volume on Polymarket.
The total trading volume for this market is $109K, with $31K traded in the last 24 hours. This represents real money at stake from prediction market traders on Polymarket.
What Are Prediction Markets? · How to Trade · Odds Calculator · Compare Platforms